Canada - A Spring to forget
- Monday June 22, 2009
This analysis featured in the June 22, 2009 issue of the HGCA's MI Prospects, Volume 11, Issue 25
Canadian Prairie crop prospects are modest as a result of a miserable spring. This is likely to create market opportunities in international markets for others, where Canada is normally a significant player.
The growing season is short on the Canadian Prairies. Over much of the area soil is still frozen in early April. But between mid-May and mid-August conditions are usually very favourable for crop development. At the other end of the season first frosts in late August are not uncommon. And after mid-September shortening days and cooling temperatures, length the time necessary for crops to mature, means that quality is threatened.
Although farmers are usually well equipped to meet the demands of a typical season, they encountered just about every kind of abnormal condition to challenge them in 2009. Spring 2009 was exceptionally cool over almost the entire Prairie region. Most locations during May received only about half their average Growing Degree Days - the daily sum of average Celsius degrees above 5 degrees and a measure of heat suitable for plant growth. There have also been widespread spring frosts. While cereals are not usually affected, canola and some other special crops have to a greater or lesser degree. Where top soil moisture was adequate for germination of a resown crop, farmers are likely to have adopted this option. But many are probably waiting for such and now anything resown will be for green feed which will likely be in demand as a result of poor pasture conditions.
For larger image click here In general, the slow start to a crop means lost potential, while there is a danger that a late start may mean a late finish and less than ideal conditions for harvesting and possibly quality implications.
Over west central Saskatchewan and much of central Alberta drought conditions are emerging. Because of the slow crop development due to cool conditions, this has not been as evident as it would have been in a normal year. Yield potential has certainly been lost.
Seeding in the Red River Valley in south eastern Manitoba was delayed and even abandoned due to flooding. In aggregate, the area is not large and on the margins of the flooded area the abundant moisture was probably beneficial for yield prospects.
Quite how all this adds up in terms of aggregate harvest prospects is difficult to assess. However, the output of a Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) computer weather model has generated some very sober reading (Table 1). Even if weather conditions are close ideal for crop development from now until harvest, the 90 percentile forecast, output of all crops will be below a five-year average except for canola. A substantial increase in sown canola area in recent years is likely to offset poor yields.
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At the 50 percentile level - average conditions between now and harvest, the weather model generally forecasts the worst yields since the last serious drought in 2002. Cereal output is forecast below five-year averages while increases in canola area offsets lower yields.
The market implications of these forecasts would be most significant in markets where Canada is a major player. For durum, the impact may be offset by good North African harvests. For malting barley, favourable harvesting conditions will be critical for Canadian supply prospects. For milling oats, EU producers may have the opportunity to share in supplying US needs. For edible pulses, not part of the CWB's forecast, the Australians may benefit.
David Walker (001) 780 434 7615
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